The most recent Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short Term Energy Outlook shows that, in 2014 and 2015, U.S. refineries are absorbing the increasing U.S. crude oil production not only by continuing to replace crude oil imports with U.S. supply, but also by increasing capacity and utilization. Product exports should remain strong as total petroleum demand is expected to stay relatively flat. However, gasoline consumption may end the year up a bit (almost 0.5% over 2013) along with diesel fuel, projected to increase 3.4%.
EIA continues to highlight the strong growth in U.S. crude oil production. But even with increasing U.S. supply, EIA expects the world petroleum balance to stay relatively tight. The additional U.S. crude oil volumes are playing a significant role in softening the impacts of global unplanned supply disruptions, which the Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates at 3.2 million barrels per day, with about one third of that loss from Libya alone. The monthly highlight reports:
“U.S. total crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in July, the highest monthly level of production since April 1987. U.S. total crude oil production, which averaged 7.5 million bbl/d in 2013, is expected to average 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015. The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of oil production since 1972. Natural gas plant liquids production increases from an average of 2.6million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.1 million bbl/d in 2015. The growth in domestic production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 33% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1970.”